![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. The world is poised to have its third La Nina in a row, something that’s only happened twice since 1950. Rainfall will be influenced by the ongoing La Nina across the equatorial Pacific. In the US, northern states are projected to receive more precipitation than normal, with parts of Oregon and Washington registering a 60% probability of wet weather. The chance of below-normal rain and snow across swathes of central Europe is greater than 40%, potentially affecting river flows and ski slopes. The Tokyo and Beijing regions also are predicted to avoid excessive cold. A positive phase can mean a milder winter.Ĭopernicus also predicted that temperatures across almost the entire continental US are expected to significantly surpass average, with certainty exceeding 70% in Texas and other parts of the south. Weather watchers should look for signs this is shifting to its negative phase because that means Europe and the eastern US may turn frigid. That’s “one of the main signals affecting Europe”, said Bradley Harvey, a meteorologist with commercial-forecaster Maxar. “At this time, there are no strong reasons to believe a notably weakened vortex is likely this winter,” Crawford said.Īnother important piece will be high and low pressure over Greenland called the North Atlantic Oscillation. Todd Crawford, director of meteorology at commercial forecaster Atmospheric G2, sees no evidence of a breakdown that could foster the type of killer cold that crippled the Texas electrical grid last year. If snowfall is strong, somewhere – Europe, North America or Asia – likely will get blasted with an Arctic wave. One potential indicator is the amount of snow building up across Siberia in October, he said. It’s difficult to predict when the vortex may break down, and Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, has spent years searching for hints. Circling the pole is a girdle of winds called the polar vortex, and if they should weaken, frigid air could come spilling south into the US, Asia or Europe. “Blackouts and industry closures could not be ruled out,” she said.Īs winter unfolds across the Northern Hemisphere, meteorologists will be closely watching the Arctic. Germany warns of blackouts and rationing, and the UK has the smallest margin of backup power supplies in seven years.Ī colder winter will reduce Europe’s chances of getting through this heating season “relatively unscathed”, said Katja Yafimava, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. Gas prices are more than four times higher than usual for the time of year. The continent is racing to find substitutes for ever-dwindling supplies of natural gas from Russia as the Kremlin’s weaponisation of energy boosts consumer bills and shoves economies to the brink of recession. “We certainly can’t rule out a big cold outbreak at some point in the winter, but the overall pattern may be driven more by weak cold fronts moving through frequently,” he said. Europe’s winter likely will be volatile, marked by shifting periods of cold and mild readings. That’s a way to use temperatures to gauge energy demand, with higher numbers reflecting more cold and more fuel being burned for heating.Ĭommodity Weather calculates a value of 2,330 this winter, compared with last year’s 2,085 and the 10-year average of 2,233, meteorologist William Henneberg said. Commercial US forecaster Commodity Weather Group holds that Europe’s winter likely will be colder than last year and slightly cooler than the 10-year average, as measured by heating degree days. Yet the outlook for a mild winter isn’t universal among meteorologists. ![]()
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